Now that the results are in and the Liberals have secured another minority government

🏛 Minority Government = Shorter Timelines & More Negotiation
With the Liberals falling short of a majority, they'll need to work with other parties to pass legislation—something that can create short-term policy shifts. Historically, minority governments last about 17 months, so we can expect a tighter window for any meaningful housing reforms.

🏡 Housing Supply & Affordability Front and Centre
The Liberal platform included major housing initiatives, including:

• A goal to build 500,000 homes per year (an ambitious target we’ve never hit).

• $25B Build Canada Homes program focused on government-led prefab builds on federal lands.

• GST elimination for first-time buyers on homes under $1 million.

• Development charge reductions for multi-unit builds to boost affordability.

While the timelines and execution remain to be seen, it’s encouraging to see continued political pressure to address inventory and affordability. That said, the supply-side fixes will take time, so demand pressure may remain high in the near term.

📉 Mortgage Rate Outlook

• Fixed rates may trend lower if larger deficits result in more bond issuance and declining yields—but this will depend on how financial markets respond to the June budget.

• Variable-rate discounts are shrinking. Even with possible Bank of Canada cuts later this year, new variable products might not offer the same savings we’ve seen in the past.

📅 What to Watch For
The federal budget, expected in June, will be key. It will tell us how the government plans to fund these housing and infrastructure plans and what impact that could have on inflation, lending policy, and rates.